The development potential of global biomass energy in 2035

The World Biomass Energy Association (WBA) released the "Global Biomass Energy Development Potential in 2035". World leaders are setting new renewable energy targets based on the December 2015 Paris COP21 climate agreement. The deployment of all renewable energy sources, including wind, solar, hydro, geothermal and biomass, should be accelerated after the Paris agreement is in place.

Biomass is currently the largest renewable energy source. So how will biomass affect global energy supply by 2035? In this paper, the World Biomass Energy Association examines the actual contribution of biomass to the global energy supply by 2035. There are 3 different sources of biomass energy: agriculture, forestry and waste streams. In 2012, the global biomass supply was 56.2 EJ, which the WBA estimates will increase to 150 EJ by 2035. About 43% of this came from agriculture (residues, by-products and energy crops), 52% from forests (wood fuel, forest residues and forestry by-products) and 5% from waste streams.

Agriculture: In 2012, crops used for food and bioenergy included: sugarcane, corn, sugar beet, cereals, rapeseed, oil palm, jatropha, soybean and sorghum. Plants for bioenergy or material use only: Energy grass, Miscanthus, switchgrass, and short-rotation coppice. Agricultural energy output is estimated at 26-34 EJ per year. Worldwide, corn, wheat, rice, sugarcane, and soybean have the greatest potential. The energy potential provided by the use of these by-products is 30-38 EJ.

Forests: In 2012, 85% of biomass used for energy came from forests or trees. Wood is currently the most important source of bioenergy. These include: woodfuel, charcoal, wood chips, pellets, bark, sawdust, reclaimed wood and other forest harvesting and wood industry residues. The future potential of wood energy depends on three aspects:

1. Better use and management of existing forests;

2. Better use of by-products or non-forest residues for biomass instead of wasting this huge share of material;

3. Plant new forests to make up for the lack of forests in some areas, thereby increasing the global forest area and producing more energy.

If all three conditions are met, 23–35 EJ can be added, and the total woody biomass energy will be as high as 72–84 EJ.

Waste: The organic part of a waste stream that can be used for energy purposes. Typical feedstocks for waste-to-energy are: landfill waste, sewage sludge, municipal solid waste (MSW) agricultural waste and food waste. The global energy potential of waste streams is estimated at 6-10 EJ.

This 150EJ net potential can be harnessed by 2035 if there are extensive government support policies promoting sustainable production and efficient use of biomass energy. Better conservation of arable land, improved soil quality, higher yields, conservation of biodiversity and responsible use of water are key to developing agriculture, as well as enabling the deployment of bioenergy.

Each country's support plan must be stable, reliable and specific, adapted to regional needs and biomass resources.

A spokesman for the World Biomass Energy Association proposed: "The Paris Agreement calls for accelerating the replacement of fossil fuels with renewable energy. By 2035, renewable energy such as bioenergy will contribute 50% of the world's energy supply.